In recent years of project development along the Brenner Corridor, project implementers have experienced major difficulties in justifying their projects publicly and partly also politically. One main element of concern in this regard was outdated or non-existent corridor transport forecasts of expected volumes on rail. Consequently, each project – being it north or south of the Brenner Base Tunnel – was communicating different rail volumes to be expected along the corridor in the future.

National transport forecasts for the Brenner axis lacked international harmonisation (assumptions, calculation methods, planning horizons etc.), which additionally fueled discussions of overall appropriateness of planning documents. Particularly in certain regions along the corridor, people were (and still are) heavily postulating the proof of increasing capacity demand on rail.

Taking into account those concerns, the Working Group Infrastructure of the Brenner Corridor Platform agreed on conducting studies to jointly and trilaterally identify expected future rail developments along the Brenner Corridor between Munich and Verona based on planned infrastructure upgrades. The need for such studies was later also confirmed by the European Court of Auditors. Hence, two studies have been contracted to examine the future development of rail freight transport as well the potential for future long-distance rail services in an integrated and comprehensive way between Munich and Verona based on common assumptions, calculation methods, planning horizons etc.

The execution of these trilaterally coordinated studies marks a milestone of cross-border transport forecasting in Europe and might serve as flagship and best practice example for jointly analysing international transport flows in other cross-border regions.

The methodologies of analysing future transport demand on rail – both long-distance passenger and freight transport – have been discussed in detail with relevant experts involved. They were elaborated in an open and transparent process on an iterative working basis, including many feedback loops. The trilateral subgroup’s consent was always precondition in order to take the next steps. In a final step, the methodology developed in the subgroup, including the results, were fully approved by the members of the WG Infrastructure, where the three ministries, the three infrastructure managers, the BBT SE and the regions are represented. The results are stable and robust and based on sound methodological approaches and models that take into account the specificities of the Brenner Corridor (see operating days, double traction due to gradient, etc.).

Due to the trilateral elaboration of the studies, it was necessary to diverge from some national approaches in the modelling process and to make a specific-adapted methodology taking into account the characteristics of the Brenner Corridor. By bringing in and applying data and expertise from all three Infrastructure Managers, very robust and clearly arguable results have been achieved which address the specifics of the Brenner Corridor.

The BCP studies are to be understood as an output which is to be used as far as possible both at European and national level for the planning and realisation of future infrastructure development. The studies do not replace existing national forecasts, but rather complement them. As far as future national forecasts are concerned, the BCP studies should also serve as a common basis.